
So I promised I would help you win your office Oscar pool a few posts ago. I don’t know how one becomes an expert in this field, but I have won quite a few Oscar pools so let me see if I can help you out this year. This is an interesting year because I think there will be a lot of surprises. The only “lock” is Mo’Nique in the Supporting Actress category which in years past is where there have been the most upsets (think Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny). Let’s go category by category….
Best Picture (Avatar, Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up In the Air): Please don’t get me started on the expansion to 10 nominees this year. The Hurt Locker won Best Picture from the Directors Guild of America (DGA), and this almost always predicts which film will win the Oscar for Best Picture. Box office hits also tend to not win Best Picture actually, but I think Avatar will be breaking all the rules in a clean sweep on Oscar night. After all, this was a much bigger box office hit in a year where the economy was struggling to say the least and since Hollywood is a business after all, Avatar will be rewarded for helping the whole industry. Many Academy members will also want to recognize the advancement of technical filmmaking this film brought with the new equipment and film technique it created. I not only think Avatar will win the Best Picture Oscar, but I also advise that when in doubt you should check Avatar off as the winner in virtually every category.
Best Director (James Cameron/Avatar, Kathryn Bigelow/The Hurt Locker, Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, Lee Daniels/Precious, Jason Reitman/Up in the Air): It’s a Battle of the Exes here. Cameron and Bigelow used to be married, but now they will be battling it out for Oscar. It’s a tight race, but like I said when in doubt go with Avatar….and James Cameron.
Best Supporting Actress (Penelope Cruz/Nine, Vera Fermiga/Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal/Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick/Up in the Air, Mo’Nique/Precious): No doubt about it, Mo’Nique all the way!
Best Supporting Actor (Matt Damon/Invictus, Woody Harrelson/The Messenger, Christopher Plummer/The Last Station, Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones, Christopher Waltz/Inglorious Basterds): Christopher Waltz has been winning every single major award leading up to Oscar night, but something tells me he may not be “popular” enough to win an Oscar. I think the Academy may want to award Christopher Plummer for a long but unrecognized career as this is the first nomination for the 80-year old actor. Go with Waltz to play it safe, but go with me and Plummer if you’re feeling a bit risky.
Best Leading Actress (Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side, Helen Mirren/The Last Station, Carey Mulligan/An Education, Gabourey Sidibe/Precious, Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia): I hope I am wrong, but I do not think frontrunner Sandra Bullock will win. The ‘surprise’ Oscar winner will be Meryl Streep, who should probably win every single year. She has been nominated a record 16 times although she has only won twice. Ms. Streep has lost 11 times in a row dating back to her last win in 1982 for Sophie’s Choice, and that slump will be coming to a close.
Best Leading Actor (Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, George Clooney/Up in the Air, Colin Firth/A Single Man, Morgan Freeman/Invictus, Jeremy Renner/The Hurt Locker): The smart money is on Jeff Bridges, but how many Academy members have even seen this indie? I’ll stick with the smart money since I’ve probably been a bit too risky already.
Now let’s go rapid-fire for the remainder of the categories….
Animated Film – Up (another lock); Art Direction – Avatar (there is some doubt, but when in doubt pick Avatar); Cinematography – Avatar (ditto); Costume Design – Coco Before Chanel (duh, it’s about Chanel); Documentary – The Cove (haven’t seen any of them, but it won the DGA); Documentary Short – China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province (um, always go with the longest title for documentary short); Film Editing – Avatar (yes, again); Foreign Language – The White Ribbon (not sure why La Nana from Chile did not make cut, but I am sure this will win); Make-Up – Star Trek (this is the only Oscar category where you go with Aliens over Victorian period pieces); Original Score – Up (exception to rule as Avatar was nominated, but I just loved the score from Up way too much); Original Song – The Weary Kind/Crazy Heart (and why wasn’t Cinema Italiano nominated?); Animated Short Film – Granny O’Grimm (see earlier post for in-depth coverage); Live Action Short – The New Tenants (ditto); Sound Editing – Avatar (and no doubt about this one); Sound Mixing – Avatar (ditto, yet not sure why these need to be two different categories); Visual Effects – Avatar (getting bored yet?); Adapted Screenplay – Up in the Air (pains me to not pick Precious, but I’m going with the WGA winner); Original Screenplay – The Hurt Locker (same scenario but with both Up and Inglorious Basterds)

I hope this was mildly entertaining and more importantly that it helps you win a few bucks from your friends and co-workers. At the very least, I imagine you should now be prepared to sit through the always-lengthy telecast if you were able to read this tome all the way through. Good luck, Cinephiles!!!